Wikileaks article in UK Guardian states that Saudi Arabia overstated reserves.
WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices –
US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world’s biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%.
Sadad al-Husseini, a senior geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco believes that Saudi officials overstate capabilities in the interest of spurring foreign investment. He is also critical of international expectations. He stated that the IEA’s (International Energy Agency) expectation that Saudi Arabia and the Middle East will lead the market in reaching global output levels of over 100 million barrels/day is unrealistic. He says that political leaders must begin to understand and prepare for this “inconvenient truth.” Al-Husseini was clear that he considers himself optimistic about the future of energy, but pragmatic with regards to what resources are available and what level of production is possible. While he fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, al-Husseini is no doomsday theorist.
This article in the UK Guardian of Aramco overstating their reserves is consistent to the research of Matt Simmons in his book Twilight in the Desert. Since 1982, the Saudis have withheld their well data and any detailed data on their reserves, giving outside experts no way to verify Saudi claims regarding the overall size of their reserves and output. This has caused some to question the current state of their oil fields. Simmons analyzed 200 technical papers on Saudi reserves by the Society of Petroleum Engineers to reach the conclusion that Saudi Arabia’s oil production faces near term decline, and that it will not be able to consistently produce more than 2004 levels. Simmons also argues that the Saudis may have irretrievably damaged their large oil fields by over-pumping salt water into the fields in an effort to maintain the fields’ pressure and boost short term oil extraction amounts.